Impact of vaccination by priority group on UK deaths, hospital admissions and intensive care admissions from COVID-19.

National (and global) vaccination provides an opportunity to control the COVID-19 pandemic, which disease suppression by societal lockdown and individual behavioural changes will not. We modelled how vaccination through the UK's vaccine priority groups impacts deaths, hospital and ICU admissions from COVID-19. We used the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan and publicly available data to estimate UK population by age group and vaccination priority group, including frontline health and social care workers and individuals deemed 'extreme clinical vulnerable' or 'high risk'. Using published data on numbers and distributions of COVID-19-related hospital and ICU admissions and deaths, we modelled the impact of vaccination by age group. We then modified the model to account for hospital and ICU admission, and death among health and social care workers and the population with extreme clinical vulnerability and high risk. Our model closely matches the government's estimates for mortality after vaccination of priority groups 1-4 and groups 1-9. The model shows vaccination will have a much slower impact on hospital and ICU admissions than on deaths. The early prioritisation of healthcare staff and clinically vulnerable patients increases the impact of vaccination on admissions and also protects the healthcare service. An inflection point, when 50% of the adult population has been vaccinated - with deaths reduced by 95% and hospital admissions by 80% - may be a useful point for re-evaluating vaccine prioritisation. Our model suggests substantial reductions in hospital and ICU admissions will not occur until late March and into April 2021.

Staying connected during COVID-19: Family engagement with adults with developmental disabilities in supported accommodation.

BACKGROUND: Enduring family engagement and informal support is crucial to the health and well-being of adults with developmental disabilities (DD) residing in supported accommodation. The COVID-19 pandemic and restrictive measures enforced in residential settings have resulted in changes in daily routine and modified the ways families can interact with and provide support to residents. Yet, the impact of these changes has not been empirically explored. AIM: Explore how family caregivers have interacted with and supported their relatives with DD residing in supported accommodation during the pandemic. METHODS: Changes in frequencies of communication modes and types of informal support were measured through a cross-sectional and anonymous online survey which completed by 108 family caregivers of adults with DD. RESULTS: Most family caregivers adopted remote communication technologies; however, these were not perceived to be effective in filling the gap created by reduced face-to-face contact. While families were able to provide emotional support and advocacy using digital technologies, they were limited in their ability to provide significant social support. CONCLUSIONS: Findings may help key stakeholders develop and implement novel strategies and policies to accommodate the changing circumstances and to ensure continuity of family engagement and informal support in the context of COVID-19.

Clinical outcomes of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities for people with epilepsy.

In this cohort study, we aim to compare outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in people with severe epilepsy and other co-morbidities living in long-term care facilities which all implemented early preventative measures, but different levels of surveillance. During 25-week observation period (16 March-6 September 2020), we included 404 residents (118 children), and 1643 caregivers. We compare strategies for infection prevention, control, and containment, and related outcomes, across four UK long-term care facilities. Strategies included early on-site enhancement of preventative and infection control measures, early identification and isolation of symptomatic cases, contact tracing, mass surveillance of asymptomatic cases and contacts. We measured infection rate among vulnerable people living in the facilities and their caregivers, with asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, including fatality rate. We report 38 individuals (17 residents) who tested severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-positive, with outbreaks amongst residents in two facilities. At Chalfont Centre for Epilepsy (CCE), 10/98 residents tested positive: two symptomatic (one died), eight asymptomatic on weekly enhanced surveillance; 2/275 caregivers tested positive: one symptomatic, one asymptomatic. At St Elizabeth's (STE), 7/146 residents tested positive: four symptomatic (one died), one positive during hospital admission for symptoms unrelated to COVID-19, two asymptomatic on one-off testing of all 146 residents; 106/601 symptomatic caregivers were tested, 13 positive. In addition, during two cycles of systematically testing all asymptomatic carers, four tested positive. At The Meath (TM), 8/80 residents were symptomatic but none tested; 26/250 caregivers were tested, two positive. At Young Epilepsy (YE), 8/80 children were tested, all negative; 22/517 caregivers were tested, one positive. Infection outbreaks in long-term care facilities for vulnerable people with epilepsy can be quickly contained, but only if asymptomatic individuals are identified through enhanced surveillance at resident and caregiver level. We observed a low rate of morbidity and mortality, which confirmed that preventative measures with isolation of suspected and confirmed COVID-19 residents can reduce resident-to-resident and resident-to-caregiver transmission. Children and young adults appear to have lower infection rates. Even in people with epilepsy and multiple co-morbidities, we observed a high percentage of asymptomatic people suggesting that epilepsy-related factors (anti-seizure medications and seizures) do not necessarily lead to poor outcomes.